← Ember Rest - Store Championship - 07FEB2026
Water Tera MageTier 1
at Ember Rest - Store Championship - 07FEB2026
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
4-0-0
overall winrate
100.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.0%
avg ELO +12.8 per match
expected value
60.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1423
· median 1423
· range 1423–1423
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1097
Q1 1351
Q3 1474
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
